The Ethereum market is at a critical moment, with bullish and bearish forces engaged in a fierce struggle in the range of $4200 to $4260. Yesterday's close saw a slight rise of 0.16%, reflecting the market's uncertainty about the future direction.

From a technical perspective, short-term momentum shows positive signals. The MACD indicator on the 15-minute chart has formed a golden cross, and the RSI remains above 50, indicating that upward momentum still exists. Meanwhile, the Bollinger Bands on the 1-hour chart are widening, and the medium-term trend still leans towards bullish.

However, the market faces two key variables:

1. Federal Reserve Policy Direction: Powell's speech at the Jackson Hole meeting will be the focus. If a dovish signal is released, Ethereum is expected to break through $4300; if the stance is ambiguous, it may continue to fluctuate.

2. US Stock Market Correlation Effect: Recently, Ethereum has shown a high correlation with the Nasdaq Index (correlation reaching 0.8). The performance of tech stocks will directly affect the movement of Ethereum, and investors should closely monitor the trends of the US stock market.

If the US stock market falls, Ethereum may pull back to the support level of $4220, or even test the range of $4200-4060. However, it is worth noting that $4060 is considered a strong support level on the daily chart, and the probability of breaking below it is very low.

For investment strategies, consider high selling and low buying in the range of $4200-$4280 in the short term. If it breaks through $4280, you can moderately increase long positions. Additionally, if the 1-hour RSI breaks above 60 and the price stabilizes above $4260, you can set the target at $4300.

Overall, the Ethereum market is brewing an important breakthrough, and investors need to remain vigilant, paying attention to key technical indicators and external factors to seize potential investment opportunities.